Turning Point

By Orion

Today was a day of changing directions!  I mentioned that i was being very cautious.  After a big gap down before opening, the market continued going down for much of the day.  I have been faked out before, so I waited until after I saw a pattern of lower lows, and lower highs to get in on the actions.  So what did I buy, you ask!  I bought FAZ, the 3x leveraged finacial ETF.  Opposite of FAS, and a very volitile ETF.

 Here is the chart of ETF SPY, which follows the S&P 500 very close.  It is just off by a decimal.

As you can see, Thursday was the last up day.  Had I not been on vacation, I would have bought FAZ on Friday!  That was the first day of reversal.  It was trading well above the EMA50 average, and Friday was a big bear candle.  Tomorrow will tell the tale.  If it doesn’t hold the EMA20 line, the I will consider this bull dead.  However, there is a possibility that we could continue upward.  With sleep and time, we will find out!

So now what?  Tomorrow I will wait for direction on FAZ.  If the market looks to continue the bull run, then I am getting out, and will look to FAS for a run.  My target for FAZ is 29.  Anything past that is gravy.  Three things could happen.  First, it will be a flat day, and SPY will stay between the 50 and 20 lines.  Second, SPY could go back above the 20 line, which would be a signal to resume the current bull run.  Third, we could drop below the 50 line.  In which case, the bull will have bled out, and we may retest the lows.

Here is my weekly performance to date:

Current positions:

You may wonder why ACTC shows up twice.  Well, my plan is to liquidate the first batch when the price gets over .29 or so.  The rest I will keep for a while.  The first batch will get back my capital and my projected profit.  I am still looking to get out of the other bio-techs in the near future.  My patience is growing thin.  For every dollar I have made in the last three weeks, the bio-techs have lost 2 more.  See previous post, “Stops good, losing money bad”.

Good luck to everyone tomorrow.  Don’t forget to trade your plan!

Sub-Penny To The Rescue…The Little Train That Could!

By dacuco

That’s right…CNVC turned out to be the little train that could! A subpenny TAM trade from last week that I was forced to hold over the weekend delivered today with a +29% rescue package. WHOOHOOO! This allows henceforth a couple of opportunities that did not previously exist which I’ll touch on in a minute.

You see the the one thing I have found to be consistently frustrating is having all of ones game capital tied up in a stock and having to wait to sell it. As we find ourselves in the beginning working with a limited amount of money it is imperative to keep things moving along. It’s hard enough to stay excited about the small increases in the cash value of your trading account without having to deal with a stock that you’re stuck holding. In penny stocks that usually means painfully watching it tumble down to a frightening level for an extended period of time. Even worse there are a host of things that these little companies can and do fall victim to that can doom them forever…BAD, VERY BAD INDEED, but that will be for another post.

Now it’s true that these pennies usually recycle, meaning they’re hot and then they’re not and then they swing back around after a period of time and are hot again. So it would seem that the easiest thing to do would be just hold them until their value increase again…right? Wrong, in my opinion and here’s why. If you have stock that drops 20% in value and let’s just say you have to hold it two months, many times six months is a more realistic time span that you might have to hold one before a turn around happens, but for the sake of our conversation lets just use two months. For this example you have invested $100.00 in XYZ stock, 1000 shares @ $0.10 per share, your stock then falls $0.02 pps or -$20.00 and doesn’t move back up, so you decide to hold it. Meanwhile momentum, excitement and volume dry up and it just stays at that price (more realistically it will continue down further) but you believe that this stock is likely going to come back around and you’re willing to wait. So using this scenario you are tying up your trade money for two months to recapture your loss, move up and deliver a 20% or $20.00 gain equal to $120.00

I know silly but bare with me, the principle is strong.

Now you might ask how would I be better off selling for a loss? Well let’s see.

#1. If you had not fallen in love with that stock you might have invested your remaining $80.00, minus commisions, in another stock that was a runner and realized a 300% or $240.00 gain.

#2. You might be able to give yourself more opportunities to trade that $80.00 multiplying your gains several times. Let’s just say you gave yourself the opportunity to trade that $80.00 just once a week over the two months you would have been holding for a potential 20% profit per trade ie. $80.00 + 20% = $96.00 + 20% = $115.00 + 20% = $138.00 + 20% = $165.60 + 20% = $198.00 + 20% = $237.60 + 20% = $285.12 + 20% = $342.14

Now will it go exactly like the example above… of course not… but I do hope you understand the principle! Don’t tie up your money over an extended period of time trying to recapture an obvious loss. Instead consider selling and freeing up your money and in turn opening yourself up to the opportunities that present themselves on a daily basis.

So tomorrow besides having to make a decision on my next trade, I find it to be equally, if not more important to decide what to do with the one I am still holding from last week! I thinks it’s time to sell for a small loss…what do you think???

Oh yeah sometimes you will sell and the stock you just sold runs the next day,,,that’ll make you sick! So sell, move on and don’t look back because more times than not you will have made the correct decision!!!

Current standings after week #1

Completed Trades:
CNVC - SHARES BOUGHT: 35000 PPS $.0021 SOLD: $.0030 PROFIT: +29%/+$23 Amt Risked: $78 Amt recovered: $101.00

Still Holding:
WGAT - Shares: 300 Shares Held: 300 PPS $0.37 Amt Risked: $116. Last Bid: $0.32 Last Ask $0.335 Current Net Value: $92.00 Profit: -21%/-$24.

Great Trading and Good Luck!!!

Best regards,

dacuco

Outlaw Traders Post (03/27/2009): Lions, Tigers, Bulls and Bears, Oh MY!

By Darrett

Lets just say WTF and throw Economics, Market and Politics in one big shit pile and talk about it. Lately everyone has had their hands in everything so might as well just have a rant and go with it this week.

OK 4 weeks ago everyone was touting the banks and financials being so awesome and amazing and they are having a profit! OMG! I said it back then they were full of shit and I am sure they would amend their statements later and this remarkable news wont be so remarkable. Anyone willing to take a further step and say as we get closer to 1Q earnings and 3Q write downs and losses its going to be worse than they led people on. If your stock was plummeting what would you do? I am sure you would clean up your books with as much sugar as possible so it wont look as bad. The problem is STILL there, there is not going to be any miracle recovery, we are  going to have to take or licks and heal up. Ever been a kid or had a kid that REALLY wanted to do something or HAD to be somewhere in 5 minutes? Then mom tells them they have to clean their room before they go and what happens? They shove every piece of junk under the bed or in the closet or both! By all appearances it looks clean, but the junk and mess is still there until it builds up again, and then what, the bed and closet are full, you’re then forced to clean it. The point being its still bullshit even if you cover it in roses, its still stinky bullshit.

OIL, 53 dollars a barrel, REALLY? On who’s planet are you on and what powerful drugs do they have because I want some. Oil was around 40 dollars when the Opec meetings was coming up and people were expecting a cut, people saw spending and other economic news wasn’t so bad so oil supplies were expected to stay the same or fall a little, then it shot up to over 45 dollars a barrel, and then OPEC didn’t cut (GEE I WONDER WHY?) and supplies increased by a million barrels dollar fell 2 bucks on the news from OPEC but then rose sharply just after the news of supplies INCREASING, W T F ? Now oil supplies have increased an additional 3.3 million barrels (wonder if adjust numbers come in late as well and its actually more) and inside the US between all the storage and the strategic reserves we have over 1.3 BILLION barrels of oil. Our highest levels since 1993. Japan, the SECOND largest economy in the world, their demand dropped 14% !!!! 53 dollars a barrel, REALLY? COME ON! WHO YA FOOLIN? ??

Anyone else noticed A LOT of adjusted figures are continuously coming in, and about 95% of the “adjusted figures” are always worse than was reported. GM and Chrysler need MORE AID, after saying, no they wouldn’t.  Anyone see the EU and Britain are on the brink of collapse and their recession is quite a bit nastier than they first reported? Hmmmmm what other smoke shall we find up our asses if we look hard enough. Oh so now BAC is going to boost everyones pay 70% to get around the Excise tax. Obama wants to TRIPLE the federal deficient after people bitch and moaned about GWB and his reckless spending. Holy shit, thats like a police officer arresting a man for blowing someones head off and then turn right around and blow of 3 Peoples head for no reason and go “WHAT? It needed to be done!!”

Unemployment is over 10% in 4 more states now, housing bottom doesn’t EVEN begin to happen till late Q3 of 2009 but the majority doesn’t bottom and recover until Q2 and Q3 of 2010, Ummm anyone starting to catch on the Banks Balances sheet are showing OK because they have not marked down the value of their foreclosed homes yet in anticipation of a generous mark to market rule they are waiting for so they can rape investors in the TARP program and get more money. Hence why the hell we need to let them freaking collapse, because not only are the banks screwing the tax payer, but they are screwing their customers too! Wow, can I whore out a financial too? Im sure I could be a great pimp!!!

TARP, What the hell is a Tarp? Sounds like a dad gum fish, and southerners love to deep fry fish for a better taste, but you know, the amount of shit thats probably going to be inside this tarp, I don’t think there is enough tools, time and money to gut and clean that fish well enough and get fried that would make it taste better.

I am still bearish and personally, I think its a huge trap to take as much money on one last big huge score for the short sellers before all the new rules come in play and make it less profitable, call me paranoid… but if you were a bunch of brutal bank robbers but lets say it was still technically legal but you knew new laws were about to come out to make it illegal, wouldn’t you as robbers want to make ONE LAST BIG FAT SCORE before you couldn’t do it anymore? Has to do with the current war and general references I been hearing described about the market, so thinking militarily, it makes sense as well.

Something to make you ponder on life and history.

A new voice of the country has seemingly come from out of no where to lead this country out of massive economic failure with the country feeling the pinch and rallying by this charismatic speaker who’s party controls all political houses without fear and with this control he vows to lead the country out of moral corruption, back in to economic power and back in the worlds eye and game as the dominant global power and influence that will not and shall not be contested and those who are the enemy of the people that are greedy and robbing the people of their wealth and hording it shall be punished. This voice shall mold a new country in their eyes and vision and increase their control over various sectors of the economy through close controls and regulations…

Now ask yourself this…. Were you thinking of Obama…….. or where you thinking of Hitler? NER NER NER NER, NER NER NER NER, NER NER NER NER *twilight zone* Just a thought, not saying its real or I am a conspiracy theorist… just an interesting correlation between history.

Had my son and time with my girl, so no picks for the pick group…

Now my hunch this week for a stock is a pick 3, might hit a pull back, but getting a good feeling about this stock. Do what you want with that, but it looks well and like it has lots more upside. ASH is the ticker symbol.. I am still long on gold stocks as well.

My thoughts on the market, damn it I am still bearish, this rally still has nothing support it IMHO, however, going on hunches and history,m I think the market will have 2 to 3 day decline at the very least, now if sentiment turns sour and worse news comes in than expected, I think we could see us diving back down. Shit according to me we shouldn’t have been here in the first place, see OIL LOL.

Lately, when I stick to MY rules of trading and I stick to my hunches, I am doing quite a bit better, I made some great trades last week, CTIC being the greatest. had I listened to others when i was 70% down I would have suffered a mass loss. Instead, when that bull was bucking like hell and tearing me around, I just griped harder on the rope and spurred that fat bitch a little harder and rode the pig out and it payed off well. Not only did I stay on the full 8 seconds on the ride, but scored some massive points too! Yes others did better, but I made my 20% gain and anything else past that was gravy.

Politics, Oh thats easy… OBAMA AND GEYNERD SHUT THE FUCK AND LET THEM ASSHOLES GO BANKRUPT!!! Oh yea don’t raise taxes, and maybe just maybe, its only a suggestion, maybe you could break up all your agenda initiatives several years, maybe stagger them just a little.

Pinch Me Please!

By dacuco

I think I’m having a bad dream and in this dream I have posted a bunch of winning picks, beauties, real performers gaining twenty, fourty, eighty, one hundred percent or more gains. So why is that a bad dream, it all sounds pretty impressive right? Well it certainly would if only I had bought one of those. You see, out of all of my picks and possibilities it appears, I found a way to buy the one that didn’t bring those kind of rewards, but instead lost a little value, nothing to dramatic mind you, but as of this writing a small loss on stagnant volume. Now the other stock I purchased had easy gains all week of +29% or more, and I expect it will again this coming Monday, but it was not to be on Friday…the last day of the first week of TAM, the last day that I had to sell it! OUCH!

This isn’t a bad dream…this is what can happen if you play your weekly picks wrong.

So for the purposes of the TAM game, tomorrow I find myself in the unenviable postition of not being able to trade. Instead I will be waiting to sell two stocks! Realizing that they may have already had their brief moment in the sun I’m not sure when and how I will trade them. If the stock gods are kind and both stocks present an opportunity to exit early with a 10% profit, my bad dream can instantly be transformed into a glorious victory. I will have made my first weeks goal and will be all cash in plenty of time to share in the bounty of the up coming trade week. If not…it remains to be seen.

But I will continue to play this game as a purist so I won’t add any more money to my TAM account nor will I trade out of any other account to falsly keep things moving forward. I believe that if I’m going to open my self up to illustrate my journey to a million then I have to do it in way that anyone with only a couple of hundred dollars would have to do it. In this instance I can’t move on until I liquidate the positions I currently hold for a win or a loss.

So the TAM game plan for week #2 is simple: Sell the two I held from week #1 as quickly as it makes sense to do so. By freeing up that cash it should give me the ability to find and participate in one or two solid 10% trades this week.

I’ll keep you posted!

Week #1 standings:

WGAT Shares: 300 Shares Held: 300 PPS $0.37 Amt Risked: $116. Last Bid: $0.32 Last Ask $0.335 Current Net Value: $92.00 Profit: -21%/-$24.
CNVC Shares: 35000 Shares Held: 35000 PPS $.0021 Amt Risked: $78. Last Bid: $.0020 Last Ask $.0021 Current Net Value: $66 Profit: -16%/-$13

It is my hope that if you have followed this blog through out the week that you may have gleaned some bit of information, either good or bad that you found usefull in the way you will proceed on the journey “To A Million”

Look out because it’s time to ROCK week #2…better days ahead!!!!

dacuco

Making Ground

By Orion

Hello from Pigeon Forge, TN!  If you haven’t ever been to the Smoky Mountains or Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge area, I highly recommend it.  Especially, if you have kids.

Well, it looks like my play on FAS worked out well.  Ya, it traded slightly above my sell price, by it never went much higher than my exit on Wednesday.  And since I didn’t have access to sell it, I would have ended with half my profit.  So, good call on my part!

The week ended up good.  Made some money, made back some money, and strengthened my cash position.  Here are the weekly results:

W/E:  3/27/09
Weekly ROI:  16.1%
Total ROI:  -14.5%
% from target:  -47.7%
SPY Weekly %:  6.87%
SPY Total ROI:  -7.9%

Closed positions:
PDS 5.51% (after fees)
FAS 10.25% (after fees)

Current Positions:
ACTC@0.18   Net -30.5%
GNBT@0.49   Net -21.6%
MCET@0.024  Net -43.7%
SCLL@0.013  Net -53.8%

A little bit of seller’s remorse on PDS.  It traded higher the remainder of the week.  However, I now have my cash back, and I did make money.  I am sitting on 57% cash, and believe it or not, Zecco has it all available!  I figured the FAS trade would have taken until next Monday or Tuesday in true Zecco form.

So, with the help of FAS mid-week, and the bio-techs coming back a little, I made back some much needed ground.  I will still look to sell off everything but ACTC next week, if the opportunity presents itself.  And I need to find a couple trades to net about 20%.

I haven’t researched the market, but for 3 weeks it has gone up.  With most anaylst still crying about the state of the economy, I would expect the market for another leg lower any time now.  But, that is pure speculation on my part.

Until next time, remember, there is more to life than money.  Make sure you stay balanced.