By Orion
Not much to say on trading as of late. I took a few small posistions in some penny stocks. I’m waiting on the market to decide which way it wants to go. As of late it has been moving around the 900 mark. Tonight I have a different chart. This one comes from bestfreecharts.com. If you haven’t seen their site, it works pretty well for free! Here’s the S&P:
We got a nice bounce off the EMA 20 line on Monday, followed by two red candles with long upper wicks. The first pattern I see is a short-term double top at 930. I think the market may have a little room yet to go up. If the S&P makes it to 950, it may continue sideways for awhile longer. However, if we start the trend down, I see 750 range as the next downside target. I don’t think it will be a big drop like november or February was.
The next big pattern I notice was the reverse head and shoulders. The left shoulder is the low from November. There was a nice retrace the rest of the year forming the neck. March low created the head followed by a retrace back to the same neck line. We have approximately 1 month left to get back to 750, for an almost symentrical right shoulder. The price to earnings on the S&P is still pretty high, well above 15. The overall market isn’t expected to recover this year, and even after that a slow climb out of the deep hole is expected.
Of course, as always, we must wait for clear direction. Right now, I am holding a pile of cash waiting to play FAZ and TZA for the retrace of the last 2 month rally. I will probably wait for a close below the EMA20 before getting heavily invested. Do your own DD, plan your trades, and trade the plan. And always use a stop!
Good luck and green trades!
-Orion
By Orion
I’m still in the same place, except a little richer. FAZ has been doing good lately. Of course, I have come to terms with probably losing money on this trade as my pps is 11.00. So, now I am trying to recoup as much as I can before I sell. And to make this happen, I need to keep a close eye on the market. So without delay, here is the chart of the S&P:
We have crossed through several short-term support levels. We are sitting just on top of the EMA20, which should see a little bounce. With the recent economic news, I would expect this level to be broken. I will be looking to sell FAZ when the S&P gets to the 875 level. These seems to be a reoccurring support/resistance level. If the market sells through 875, I will be eyeing 851 as the next support. The pivot point analysis shows the PP at 890.70, S1 at 876.01, and S2 at 868.11. The STOC and MACD are both pointing down. The RSI is pointing down and still high enough for a continued downtrend. The MFI has been trending down, but is currently flat and right at 50. So, with the market closing near it’s low, I would speculate another day or two trending down. Of course, if the market starts to show strength, I am bailing on FAZ.
I am also going to look for a penny play tomorrow. Based on Dacuco’s picks, I will be looking at PMII, COIN, and ONT. Look for volume and a trend up if you are going to play along. And don’t hold any of these too long. Get the profit, and get out.
Until next time, good luck and green trades!
-Orion
By Orion
Well, after a week away from the market, a funeral, and a 2,000 mile road trip, I am back in the saddle. I didn’t even listen to the news much for over a week. When I got back into reality, I was surprised to see the market still going up. However, it looks like it is beginning to weaken now.
I got to do a lot of reflecting upon a lot of things during the road trip. Pretty boring drive between Des Moines and Nashville. I came to the conclusion that all is well in the universe. The farmers were still planting crops, the sun rises in the west, the Mississippi still flows south, the banks are still loaning money, cars are still selling, people are still buying houses, and I need to diversify my game strategy.
I am very impressed with the work of the TAM group the last few weeks. I haven’t been able to participate, but the picks have been good. Dacuco is on fire with his recent picks. I feel like the group is turning the corner. The new plan involves looking for higher risk/return potential. I am going to allocate 10% of my portfolio to one trade based on Dacuco’s screener. Another 10% will be allocated to the TAM pick of the week (one of the top three). The other avenue I will change will be to only do 40% in the leveraged ETF’s and another 40% either in an ETF or a solid company with good potential for three days or so.
I have still been playing my TAM account like an investment account. I came to the realization that I need to be either an investor or a speculator. I am already an investor in other accounts. I have IRA’s, 429’s, investment accounts, and several other modes to be an investor. Those are all buy and hold (recently buy and lose). But, those accounts will perform well over the next 5, 10 and 20 years. I just keep buying in those accounts. I only look at them once every six months.
My TAM account is for speculation. It was funded with play money. I refuse to add any more capital to it. So, in this account, I need to play the market like a speculator. Buy the flavor of the day, get my 10%+ and get out. Set tight stops for capital protection. If a stock doesn’t move up, dump it and move on. So each play is turned in days if not hours.
Finding a trading style that works well for you is important. It has to work with the amount of time you have for trading and homework. It also has to fit your lifestyle. Most traders are not full time day-traders with hours to sit and watch every tick of the markets. I am definately not one. So with 6-8 hours on the weekend to plan the week. Another hour or so each evening to monitor and refine the plan. That should make the trading part relatively easy.
Word of caution for any newcomers to this game: Do not play with money you can’t lose. Even though you have a group for support, and many good blogs posts, the odds are against you winning. So just like with gambling, only risk money you are willing to part with.
I have lost my share of money getting my education in stock trading. So, I have decided that I am staying at week zero until my account balance gets back to even. I will consider all that time experimentation and training. Once I get back to even, I will restart the clock on the TAM game.
My time away has done me good. I am ready to get back at the market refocused with my newly refined plan and make some money. I hope you will follow me on the continued journey To A Million!
Good luck and green trades!
-Orion
By dacuco
Oh boy…it’s that time of the year when I start thinking that I might never again find a moment that hasn’t already been spoken for to peck out a few words for the blog. For anyone that might be under the illusion that I am some millionaire stock mogul who sits in front of my laptop on a Mexican beach sipping on a cocktail with a little umbrella in it and a sun drenched, barely clad beauty in a bikini at my side…well that’s true, minus the millionaire part and oh yeah, that’s only for a couple of long weekends a year and the aforementioned beauty is my wife of 25 yrs. Well you get the point!
I work most days in a swimming pool service and repair company that I have owned for the last 16 years and let me tell you water in a 105 degree desert this time of year is verrrry popular. It’s just that brain cells are at a premium to the man who roasts them in that kind of heat everyday. LOL! So I haven’t been avoiding you I’ve just been incredibly busy. Enough said.
The bottom line is my TAM account is stuck. Until one of these little gems decides to run a bit I am going to hold on to them. My thought at this point is, that since I have fallen a bit behind the weekly chart I need one of these little penny monsters to take off and deliver 50 to a 100% kick to get my game back on track and I am confident that they will. I could sell and move on but please…don’t get me started on that lack of time thing again OK.
On a bright note I have been killing it with my newest system for qualifying picks. You really should stop by the TAM chat and check out some of the calls. Just about all are posted in advance and many are delivering great gains. Now calling big runners is not necessarily my goal, and I am usually not a day trader, matter of fact I usually bail out well in advance of any of the huge run ups completely satisfied with somewhere around 30% Although it felt great today to pull off 72% gain with CNB this morning before running out the door. And it was kinda cool that about ten minutes before that, that I grabbed a 55% pop on HAYZ. Sadly I didn’t buy any EGT but I did alert it and pick it for the TAM weekly pick and according to my screener it ended the day up 169% YIKES! lol! My LEE alert turned out to be knockout pick for TAM last week and even BKUNA delivered the prize, though it was a little smaller than anticipated…but hey what the hell I’ll take 10%, after all isn’t that what the TAM game is all about!
So, long story short TAM game stalled a little but pickin winners like a madman right now and lovin it!!! Hope to see you soon, so until we meet again, as always…
Knock em dead and let’s get that million just so we can say we did.
dacuco
