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for June, 2010.
By William Cash
No Fill - I tried to get into EPAZ twice (.026 and .028) but could not fill. I don’t often chase it either, but I wanted a chunk of this one. I did not end up getting in though. It made one hell of a profit for somebody else. Wille Cash just ended up Wille NoCash on that one.
UP - I had purchased IDTA the day before close and sold in the morning only to re-enter the stock after the selloff. I ended up buying two positions as I thought the first position was the bottom and it was not. I thought it would retrace faster than it has. I think that on Monday we should see it move as people should be over the immediate shock of being rocked like that. I’m up about 7% on that one and I am hoping to get closer to 20%. I went about 50% over what I like to have invested in a single stock (6X). Not very comfortable doing that. But I am up right now, so until it goes red I made an acceptable decision.
UP - I also bought a stock a way I don’t normally buy. Dark was calling out CTIC movement, so I looked and waited til I thought it broke its resistance and purchased. I know they have some stuff in the pipe news related. CTIC at 1.72.
I was watching all of these stocks, (and more). There were probably 10 trap stocks that showed up. I think I called them the stocks not to buy before. They are not in this list.
Symbol Ch% Change Volume Avg Volume (65 days)
ZAGG 0.57 9.61 267,265 305,471.11
AFTC -0.014 -19.72 4,234,211
WNBD 0.0017 10.76 23,600,647 16,704,526.35
SPCB 0.0325 76.47 18,606,310 1,291,245.23
ONFI 0.0015 7.14 24,866,754 2,710,342.72
NPWS 0.048 77.42 45,200,776 2,557,088.14
LFBG 0.014 33.33 9,534,746 2,177,997.58
IDTA -0.0014-29.17 170,868,704 21,355,325.25
CHDO 0.00 0.00 6,326,005 517,012.83
EPAZ 0.027 180.00 3,986,411
CTIC 0.22 14.01 125,226,638 34,489,456.45
Monday I will continue to post my buys and sells in chat. I have not been as good about it as I want to. I will try harder.
Happy Trades!
TAM!
W$
By Orion
Glad to be back. I apologize for my absence the last several weeks. As I am not a professional trader, work has to come first. After all, my work allows me to trade by giving me a paycheck every week! The nice thing about being busy with work is that I have learned to set my stops or sell orders and trust my judgement.
I haven’t really been trading much lately. I’m trying to be patient with some pinks that I have. Next week should be interesting. I personally think it will be a deciding week. Here’s the S&P Chart:
Well, here’s my take on this beast. I have several lines drawn to highlight the key areas. The market banged its head on the EMA200 several times two week ago. It finally gave up and crashed back to the 890 or so mark. After Monday’s big down day, we recovered nicely, closing slightly up for the week. I see major resistance ahead leading back to the EMA200. There is the increasing trendline defined by the previous patterns lows going back into april. You know, once support is broken, it becomes resistance. In addition, we have the resistance from the May 8th close around 930. Then there is the big downtrend line defined by the swing highs dating all the way back to June of last year.
I believe this is a key point in the market. Chopiness will probably be high next week. I can see a test of 930 mark. If this resistance holds down the market, a well-defined head-and-shoulders pattern will be made. This is a key reversal indicator. With the failure of crossing the EMA200, I would think this as a high probability. If the market goes down from there, we have support at 916, 900, 890, and 880.
However, the VIX is around 26. We haven’t seen this indicator this low since mid-September last year. The market may have considerable strength to blow past the resistance points (930, 935, 938, 942, and 947) and define a new high swing high. Another interesting tidbit is the volume. The volume on the S&P had a huge spike today for such a boring doji day.
So, do your own research, draw some lines on your charts. Watch how the market responds at the key points. If the market can continue up, I will go long into some of my trades listed on the TAM website . However, if start heading down, I will look to FAZ, TZA, ERY, and BGZ. I am already in FAZ, so I will be watching closely to see if I need to close this position. Watch the VIX to gauge market sentiment. This will be critical.
Other intersting tidbits: Climate bill pass house, Oil down on weak demand, people are saving more, more banks are failing. This should all make for a very interesting week!
Good luck and green trades!
-Orion
By William Cash
Hi again. The battle continues. I finished thinning out the crowd of stocks that I had gathered during the second part of the test. There are still 4 stocks that remain that will sit there for some time I would guess. Kind of like the guest that wouldn’t leave or something like that. But keeping those will be ok. I will be able to manage those pretty easily, because they just don’t move. LOL! Onto the meat…..
Today was interesting. I reviewed my notes for stock selection criteria in the morning and identified a few stocks as they quickly moved. I tested those numbers by paper trading them. I wanted to make sure that I was not going to buy more of the “trap stocks”. The following are the stocks that came up quickly this morning and were good for daytrades. At one point, one of these stocks was a 300% gain (npws). I would have only caught it as a double, but thats pretty damn good anyways.
npws - aftc - idta - grgr - biel
It was good practice. The “trap” stocks came fast and furious today. I only paper traded the 5 above. So, I think the reasoning on selection is accurate and am ready to buy what comes at me tomorrow. I told Dark that I wanted to buy 3 of them tomorrow if they present themselves. I’ll let you know how it went.
I almost forgot. I purchased 1.5X of IDTA to see if it is going to continue its march to glory. It has been moving 20% or so and it might be worth a small spin. We’ll see tomorrow.
Til Then Happy trades!
W$
By William Cash
There is progress on thinning out the crowd. Sold 6 stocks this morning. 3 went for $100 gains ea. and 2 for a $50 loss ea. and one more at a $60 loss. I set all of the other stocks to sell to close to where they are. I am projecting a loss on these stocks, because a few went down and a few are the true penny-killers that are sitting at the low range of obscurity - like .0002 and such. I will still be up close to $1450 since the project started after I liquidate some of the poop stox that I purchased. If I continue to develop it with even better rules and stick to them, I should not have to face many more obstacles like this. I have more to sell, so I hope that they go sooner than later because they are more like the second trade in this blog ECCI (The one not to buy).
This brings up the subject to refine more of the stimulus to buy or not. I am going to cite a couple of trades that I saw this morning and what to do with each one of them.
The type of Stock to Buy!
This stock came up at .028. I looked twice. I said buy and buy 4X hard and right now. I did not. I am setting sells on my “over-excitement buys”. I promised myself to make this volatility test more organized. I knew it was going to go hard. The volatility was very strong in an upward direction. If I were buying, this would have been an execution of 1200.00. Why would I say 4X execute? The money going in was so fast and strong without hardly any resistance. The stochastics were in the 90’s for a long time for the past few days and continued that way into the larger move. The volume was killer. When it is moving that easy, there is serious money to be made, (and also lost). It was also in the cent range, so somebody with more serious money was making it move. I’m more apt to put more money into a stock when there is more of a perceived “footing” for the stock to rest on. This means that the stock has most likely survived the onslaught of investors that bought in at .00002-.0001. When they sell, they are selling millions and billions of shares. I’ll grab another screenshot to see where it went today. I’ll post it below the original.
Wow, this was a great setup! The potential was awesome. Since a trade would have been made under .03, this would have been a FOUR BAGGER. (If it were sold at max. Solid 2-3.5X I would say knowing me as well as I do.)
The type of stock not to buy under this volatility trading platform!
This stock, I’m sure its wonderful is not the kind of stock to buy for this type of trading. These are traps. They will sit there until somebody decides to bust them free of their bondage. The potential for profit can be great, but most of the time they will sit for months and not move at all. There is a place for these stocks in a “wishing well account”, but not here. Sometimes also, you will get stuck in some of these where they are going up and you buy at .00004 and it decends quickly to .0001 or 2. Red staring you in the face only defeats your ego and makes you less of a trader than you are.
Another one that came up because of accelerated volume.
Here is a table that I have created to guage the amount of money that I put into a single trade. I will have to work on this to fine tune this too, but here is a start. Since my TAM account value is $10,000, I have it set up for this amount. If you are trading less, make the trade amount appropriate to your balance. A single trade or ( 1X ) on the volatility test chart will equal $300. This represents 3% of my account. 1X is a baseline scary trade. If you lose 25% of your 1X trade, bfd…it just doesn’t matter. If you take 50-100% from a trade…good for you. Watch for the next and do it again. Its like the shampoo bottle says, wash, rinse, repeat. Same in trading volatile stocks.
Here is a table:
- 1X = $300 or 3% of account value
- 2X = $600 or 6% of account value
- 3X = $900 or 9% of account value
- 4x = $1200 or 12% of account value
Most of the time when you are trading regular stocks, it is common practice not to risk more than 10% of your portfolio on a single security. When you are dealing with stocks that are considered to be more volatile than regular stocks, it is better money management to divide your account even further. The largest amount that I like to trade on a pinkie stock is 12%. Any larger than that is uncomfortable.
After I get done with all the rules and whatnot, I’ll post an easier to follow document.
Happy trades!
W$
By William Cash
Volatility trading working-but need to keep it under control.
I am finding many stocks that show a level of promise through volume and buyer excitement. The more of them that I buy under a loose volatility criteria, the more they as a mass become my beast to slay. I even found myself compromising my initial thoughts on the volatility study because I wasn’t finding them quickly enough.
I know we’ve all been to this point where we’re looking at a screen of green and red, but what do we do with them and why the hell do we have this many and how the hell did I let myself go this far? ? I think of thoughts like this: ”I’ll buy that one because it can’t go down any farther.” ”I’ll get this one because I think its going to go.” ”I’ll buy this one because I saw it on a spam blast where they said its going to triple.” There’s a ton of thoughts that help us to make our decisions on why we buy. Funny thing is we are left with a feeling of burden and a sense of urgency to want to get rid of those stocks that have not moved the way we want them to.
I am refocusing my approach to limit and fine-tune criteria for purchasing. I am studying myself this week and letting myself make mistakes. ****I found this item to be a standard rule for picking stocks under the volatility study: Volume must be queer for the security. It must be out of line and continual. It must be almost un-natural. I saw this in 5 or 6 stocks that I purchased since Friday. I saw them on ASFX, HTDS, MGLG, IDTA and a few more. I bought all of those stocks quickly when I noticed how furious people were to snap them up.
Here is a volume study on some of the stocks that I purchased this week:
Symbol Volume Avg Volume (65 days)
BCND 234,123,320 69,308,319.26
IDTA 142,451,498 13,296,235.58
IMGW 583,767,202 89,782,911.08
ONCP 16,207,000 11,770,959.18
WNMX 8,209,642 2,844,234.37
There is more to it then just that, but I noticed it today when I was trading. I’ll try to post tomorrow night about the criteria that I go through “naturally” to pick these stocks. I’m going to use a handheld recorder to capture my thoughts. I hope that it will help us in pursuit of TAM!
I desire to light the world on fire because I am very excited about the promise that this study is bringing to me. In retrospect, I should have devised the whole plan and then execute but I am still resolute to see the test all the way through in its current form. I’m learning a lot by bumping my head on things as I stumble through.
I wanted the process to go faster and get TAM by tomorrow and then I shook my head and said to myself, “Willie if you can’t be happy picking 4 stocks that double in a week, you’re an idiot.” Funny how hindsight is 20/20….
TAM!
W$
