By William Cash
I’ve found myself passing on active stocks lately that I’ve already traded before. Whether they were winners or losers before in my trades, I still have to get used to buying them again and ignoring what I do know or don’t know about a stock.
I’m going to work through it this next week to try to overcome that “feeling”. Being truly free from those prejudices are my goal. Today is a great example of what my problem is. My list for the record is: IFSL CBIS IGNT CLBN LLBO BZCN PMDP OWVI SARO EXPH GBOE MDXO GDSM. Some of these stocks I have made money on, some of these stocks have a loss attached. Three of them are down and 10 are up from 12-140% as of this moment. There are a couple in the list that I have not even traded either. When I keep getting that “feeling”, it screws up my ability to just trade and take the profit.
I have heard people dealing with this, but have not read anything that might be a help on the subject. I will update as soon as I can find some things that will help me to conquer this.
On another note, two of the “It’s a trap” stocks went up and sold for me today. Ignoring them works! OK, at least for two of them that I did not think anyone would ever buy.
The volatility trading is profitably working, just having another personal roadblock to conquer.
Happy Trades!
W$
By Orion
After learning how to read fundamentals and then learning how to read technical indicators, there is only one thing left to do. Trade with your eyes wide open. What this means is don’t trade a pattern until you see it. I have taken 4 short positions after the big run up and been on the wrong side of the trade each time. I am still expecting the market to correct from this level at some point in the near future. However, I have learned my lesson to trade with my eyes and not my heart or gut. Don’t trade it until you see it.
On another topic, my picks from yesterday are doing nicely. Here is the recap
Bought
ABAT@3.87 (target sell 4.50) current PPS 3.93
RGR@14.39 (target sell 16.00) current PPS 13.96
TDW@46.79 (target sell 54.00) current PPS 46.50
CALM@30.01 (target sell 35) current PPS 30.43
IPI@25.00 (target sell 29.00) current PPS 24.17
MSTR@54.50 (target sell 65.00) current PPS 55.50
QSII@54.53 (target sell 60) current PPS 54.08
Still on watch list:
GRMN@24.00 (target sell 28.00) current PPS 24.61
MASI@23.00 (target sell 26.00) current PPS 24.03
TBSI@6.75 (target sell 10.00) current PPS 7.59
ANCI@4.52 (target sell 6.00) current PPS 4.63
FSLR@147.00 (target sell 190.00) current PPS 156.00
STAR@24.00 (target sell 26.00) current PPS 25.84
My favorite two FSLR and ANCI didn’t fill. I missed ANCI by one cent. I refused to chase it. And FSLR gapped up and had a nice gap fill, but never went low enough to fill my limit order. Again, these are for reference only, not a buy recommendation. I only had actual orders for FSLR and ANCI. The remaining stocks I am paper trading to see how this new selection criteria will work. Some of these stocks are more like a pressure cooker than a microwave.
Here’s the S&P chart:
So from the March low, we had a serious run up followed by an acending wedge. This wedge led to the breakdown, but the bulls still maintained control by keeping above the 20 day EMA. Then we ran up to the EMA200 with a high base formation. At this point the market made what appeared to be a head and shoulders reversal pattern. However, it turned up to be a bull flag or pennant. Which last Wednesday’s big run confirmed.
So here I sit, pondering what to do. The S&P is currently above the EMA200, and looking very positive. The VIX is the lowest it has been for a long time. The MACD broke the decreasing trendline. There are two big catches. The first one is the RSI is getting really close to 70. The second is that we have a hanging man formation at a double top formation. This earnings season has been so-so, but a lot of companies are beating their low expectations.
I could see three things happening. First, consolidation around the 950 mark with a breakout on a good day, a correction back to the EMA20 or the EMA50 with a third try at the 950 resistance line. Thirdly, we could head south from here and retest resistance all the way to 666. Warren Buffet has said something to the effect, “When everone is fearful, buy; and when everyone is buying, be fearful”. The market seems to be immune to P/E ratios and bad news. It’s like a frog in a pot of water. If you drop a frog in boiling water, the frog will jump out. But if you turn the heat up slowly, you will boil the frog to death. The P/E ratios are at an all time high, thanks to the ultra low earnings the companies are posting. Yeah, we are beating expectations, but there is a lot of red in the expectations. So beating an EPS of -1.00 per share with -.50 per share seems to be magical. The big question for me is earnings come up quick enough to offset the P/E ratio, or with the prices suffer correction to get the ratio back to more reasonable number? Only time will tell.
Until next time, Good luck and green trades!
-Orion
By William Cash
Willie Cash started buying SYMW. I might be just a little ahead of the line, but I wanted to catch the rebound trickle boom. I bought higher thinking I had the bottom, (which obviously didn’t) then I bought hard at .0006 with an under ask order at bid price. They kindly filled my order. I smiled and decided that I am the king of trading for that moment. LOL…..
I hope it goes well. The company is basically a light paper tiger but there are people that will want to increase the price into the .0014-.0019 range, to at least save their initial investments. It is also a MM toy too, so maybe they;ll have some more fun with it. Support is nearby, so I don’t think a heavy loss will be incurred. Volume is good too.
Happy trades!
W$
UPDATE: Monday August 3rd, 2009. I’m still in. I watched it go to .0016, but I think with the right news….hmmmm. I might buy and sell the dips and peaks. Good for 40%.
UPDATE: Monday August 10th, 2009. I’m still in. It looks like this one might open higher tomorrow. Staying in till i get a few thousand profit.
UPDATE: Monday August 17th, 2009. I decided to hop out. It went to .0012 and it was going up but I decided that I want to stay more true to form and just take the momentum plays. I sold it all.
By William Cash
| ASFZ |
ASSOCIATES FIRST CAPITAL CORPORATION Res |
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| IMGW |
Image Worldwide Inc Common Stock |
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| RSGR |
Resource Group International Inc New |
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| UNQT |
Union Equity, Inc. |
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These stocks remind me not to trade with such loose criteria. These are stocks that may get somebody to buy them someday. I hope that they will sell in the not too distant future. I’ve found if I stay away from the stocks in the .0001 to .0009 range, I seem to be more successful with the trades. That’s not to say these may not work too, but I have not seen it very much at all in my experiment.
Those stocks are set to sell at or close to where I bought them. Can’t go down much further unless they invent some super duper mega-mini rupee microcap conversion.
Also, a stock I bought yesterday decided not to make me any money. JCDS was the stock. It went up well, but just died. Its just one of those things. I lost $30. Not too sad about that one.
Happy Trades,
W$
By William Cash
Hi kids.
Had an interesting day. Tried my hand at playing Mr. Bigshot and it actually worked. I know that this was just luck, but let me tell it to you anyways.
Willie Cash wasn’t happy with a stock he was in and with no volume happening on his stock he was sitting on, he decided he must do something different in order to get out of this stock with a profit. He had a thought…..Why don’t I mess with the bid and ask and throw little buys and sells out there and see if we can attract anybody who likes shiny things. So he started. He banged the ask twice, banged the bid, then the ask twice. Then he moved the ask and the bid himself. (Can you tell nothing much was happening?) Then another player saw activity and released a higher ask by 15%. Willie then put an under-offer in to raise the bid value. Willie hit the sell button for all of his lot that he wanted to sell and hit his own ask with $10 trade. Not more than 30 seconds later, all Willie’s stock went away. Somebody thought it was becomming active to a point where they would put in $2,000 or more I guess.
Why did Willie do that? I still don’t know. But it was fun. He made $400 after fees. (I think)
Please don’t trade like Willie did today. I don’t think everybody likes shiny things like that guy that bought Willie’s shares…. I wonder if Dacuco moves the market like this? He is the premiere .pk killer.
Happy Trades!
W$
